Consumer Insights & Gun Industry Demand Forecast: Edition #2
Our April 2026 quarterly demand report provides an understanding of where gun consumers and non-consumers sit in their beliefs around gun policy and where they are getting their media.
This is the second edition in an ongoing original report series from Guns Down America examining four consumer audiences and their relationship to gun purchasing, cast against the backdrop of national projected consumer demand. Each report is derived from a dataset comprised of a demand forecast from Guns Down America’s proprietary Small Arms Demand Observatory and Resonate Elements insights on the media habits, purchase drivers, political views, and demographics of the following audiences:
🔵 Never Gunners — Non-owners not considering a gun purchase in the next 12mos
🔴 Gun Curious — Non-owners considering a gun purchase in the next 12mos
🟠 Happy Hunters — Owners not considering a gun purchase in the next 12mos
🟣 Gun Enthusiasts — Owners considering a gun purchase in the next 12mos
In December 2025, we published our first Gun Industry Consumer Insights & Demand Forecast to understand and validate perceptions of gun demand. In that report, which you can read here, we forecasted a lagging gun market, and showed the relationship between economic insecurity and demand for guns.
The interest we received led us to build out this data in an interactive dashboard which you can access here. We’ll be updating this dashboard monthly and providing insights that we observe on a quarterly basis.
Read on for:
Insights into four consumer audiences at various stages of the gun purchase funnel—from “Never Gunners” to “Gun Enthusiasts”
A forecast of demand for guns to understand whether the industry is growing, stagnating, or declining
Gun Industry Consumer Insights, April 2026
This quarter, the Guns Down America team noted the following findings:
Audiences considering gun ownership are not increasing. The Gun Curious segment size is very stable over time (fluctuating by a maximum of 400,000), and the Gun Enthusiast segment has decreased slightly (by 900,000 since the start November 2025). These findings are consistent with our demand forecast, which predicts a waning interest in gun purchasing.
In matters of policy, the audiences align strongly based on their future purchasing status, rather than their gun ownership status.
Over 50% of the Never Gunners and Happy Hunters supported gun safety reform and mental health policies, while the Gun Curious and Gun Enthusiasts were more lukewarm or negative about similar policies across the board.
This indicates that purchase intent may be a better predictor of policy attitudes than current gun ownership. It also shows that individuals who support public policy on gun safety outnumber those who do not.
Key gun violence prevention policies have significant support across all audiences, with the biggest disparity for the Assault Weapons Ban between purchasers (less support) vs. non-purchasers (more support).
Support for Universal Background Checks:
Gun Curious — 71.26%
Never Gunners — 86.76%
Gun Enthusiasts — 73.58%
Happy Hunters —84.65%
Support for Telehealth & Mental Health Funding:
Gun Curious — 62.87%
Never Gunners — 80.42%
Gun Enthusiasts — 70.55%
Happy Hunters —80.69%
Support for the Assault Weapons Ban:
Gun Curious — 41.48%
Never Gunners — 68.76%
Gun Enthusiasts — 34.07%
Happy Hunters — 59.07%
Audiences considering a future gun purchase had similar media diets. The Gun Curious and Gun Enthusiast groups over-indexed on social media membership to platforms such as Truth Social, Twitch, Discord, and Reddit. This reveals where purchase identity and political identity may be shaped simultaneously. Gun violence prevention advocates should consider meeting consumers in these more siloed platforms.
Gun Industry Demand Forecast, November 2025 — October 2026
The demand forecast produced by the Guns Down America Small Arms Data Observatory shows a downward trend in demand through October of 2026, barring unplanned events or national tragedies that have bolstered sales in the past.
We expect the firearms industry to face mounting financial pressure from a shrinking market and consumer preferences tacking toward cheaper, less profitable handguns, despite anecdotal evidence of increased consumer interest in firearms purchases among potential new purchasers.
